Lithium everywhere but not a drop to… drive? Part I

You can hardly pick up a newsworthy publication on any given day without getting a hefty dose of facts, hype, propaganda, and special interest stories about lithium ion batteries. It is all there for the reading. The amount of information flowing on lithium ion batteries and their role in the ultimate salvation of the automotive industry through full electrification of automobiles is enormous—enough  to overwhelm anyone with a desire to watch the progress of the battery industry and the evolution of the technology.  It feels like drinking from the proverbial fire hose. The mass marketing and inundation of the consumer with information is all meant to keep us consumers focused on the next three years and the introduction of electric cars with adequate range, appropriate safety, and economics we can all live with while freeing us from our dependence on (foreign) fossil fuels.

Next three years? Not likely. And it is becoming plainly obvious why that is the case. Simply put, the technology is not ready for it and consumers are not ready to adopt it. Recent publications state this in no uncertain terms and have realistic—but far reaching—projections about the potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The Boston Consulting Group has indicated:

“The electric vehicle is expected to remain relatively unattractive to consumers in 2020 unless its cost is subsidized . . . Only if the battery cost drops very low will the electric vehicle become attractive … The mild hybrid is the first real step on the electrification path … “ – Boston Consulting Group

Unattractive to the consumer in 2020! At the current production rate of literature and articles on the prospect of the electric vehicles, that is a lot of trees and mega-miles of typewritten words between here and there. And this from the Department of Energy, in their 2009 Annual Energy Outlook:

“….Even in 2030, the additional cost of a PHEV is projected to be higher than total fuel savings … if consumers do not choose to buy PHEVs because they are not cost-competitive with conventional vehicles in the near term, then PHEV sales volumes will not be sufficient to induce the economies of scale assumed for this analysis.”  -  DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2009

These two sources, and many others, are spending time exploring this issue and the overall prospect of hybrid vehicles. PHEVs, despite their glamour, glitz, and hype, are a long way off from mainstream reality for the consumer, not to mention from saving the planet.

It is not all negative however. all this attention does make sure that the industry and its consumers do not lose sight of this important future technology and it will keep us steaming toward a good “plug-in” solution. But due to their high cost, poor low temperature performance, charge rate limitations, and safety considerations, lithium ion batteries are commandeering the world’s attention ahead of their time for plug- in electric vehicle applications.

So what is the risk of all this attention being focused on PHEVs coupled with lithium ion batteries?  We’ll get to that in Part II of this discussion.